Samsung Electronics' stock price, which once exceeded '100,000 electronics', has been sluggish at around 50,000 won. There are 6 million ant investors. There is no choice but to be interested in when the stock price of Samsung Electronics, the "national leader," can turn upward.
Samsung Electronics' stock price closed at 59,000 won on the 6th. Samsung Electronics' stock price hit an all-time high (KRW 96,800) on January 11, 2021. Since then, it began to fall in July of the same year, and the current stock price has fallen by about 40% compared to the highest. Compared to the beginning of last year (the closing price of KRW 78,900 on January 11), it fell by 25%.
This is because the memory semiconductor recession began in the second half of last year. Spot DRAM prices fell more than 40% due to a sharp drop in demand for information and communication (IT) devices. Stock prices of Micron and SK Hynix also fell 40% from their peak. Samsung Electronics' preliminary earnings for the fourth quarter of 2022 also plunged 69 percent from the same period last year to 4.3 trillion won.
Nevertheless, the securities industry predicts that stock prices of semiconductor companies, including Samsung Electronics, will rebound. This is due to the characteristics of stock prices in the semiconductor industry. The stock price of semiconductor companies has a strong lead. Even if the performance is good right now, stock prices may fall out if the semiconductor economy is expected to worsen in the future. In fact, even though Samsung Electronics set a new quarterly performance record last year, its stock price continued to fall. This is because a global economic downturn was expected this year. As a result, there is even a saying that 'semiconductor stock prices move inversely to their performance'.
In fact, Samsung Electronics' stock price rose 1.37% from the previous day. SK Hynix also closed at 83,100 won, up 2.09 percent. SK Hynix is likely to be in the red from the fourth quarter of last year.
Lee Jong-bin, a researcher at Meritz Securities, said, "The stock price of the semiconductor industry has been ahead of the business for more than five months due to its strong lead," adding, "If there is room for a rebound in the second half of this year, the stock price will react from the beginning of the year."
The question is when will the semiconductor economy bottom out and rebound? Some securities firms say that it is time to pay attention to semiconductor companies again, while others say that the timing of the rise is still uncertain.
KB Securities raised Samsung Electronics' target stock price by 7% from 75,000 won to 80,000 won on the 5th. Kim Dong-won, a researcher at KB Securities, said, "In the past case, stock prices rebounded from the previous quarter when memory inventories peaked," adding, "Now is the time to expect a rebound in stock prices as it is expected to peak in the second quarter." He believed that the current stock price reflected concerns about the slump in the memory industry in advance.
Credit Suisse, a foreign securities firm, said, "The deep slump in the memory semiconductor market will bottom out in the second quarter of this year," adding, "Samsung Electronics will remain the only profitable DRAM company until the first half of next year." The company put Samsung Electronics' target price at 86,000 won, the highest level among foreign companies.
On the other hand, Kim Rok-ho, a researcher at Hana Securities, said, "Samsung Electronics' stock price is 1.1 times higher than the historical band," adding, "The stock price is at the bottom, but the inventory level of memory semiconductors is more burdensome than expected, raising uncertainty about when the stock price will rise."
Morgan Stanley, which has been promoting "semiconductor winter theory" since the second half of 2021, suggested Samsung Electronics' target price differently for each scenario. Samsung Electronics' stock price could fall to 49,000 won in the worst case of a prolonged slump in the semiconductor industry. On the contrary, it is expected to recover KRW 95,000 if the industry rebounds rapidly.
